I am a tenure-track Assistant Professor of Statistics in the School of Science and Technology at IE University. My research focuses on the development of machine learning algorithms and the mathematical understanding of their properties. My main areas of research are:

• Probabilistic graphical models
• Sensitivity analysis
• Applications

In particular, I have been focusing on a class of models called staged trees. Together with Gherardo Varando we have developed the stagedtrees R package, available on CRAN. A book titled "Staged Trees: With Examples in R" will be published in 2025 by CRC Press!!

Relevant Info

• I am a member of the ELLIS Society
• I was Editor of Bernoulli News in 2019-2023
• In 2019 I was a visiting professor in the Faculty of Medicine at McGill University
• In 2019 I organized the 1st UK Workshop on Probabilistic Modelling using Chain Event Graphs at the University of Glasgow

Education

• PostGraduate Certificate in Academic Practice, University of Glasgow, UK.
• PhD in Statistics, University of Warwick, UK. Thesis: Bayesian decision support in complex modular systems: An algebraic and graphical approach.
• MSc in Statistics, University of Warwick, UK. Thesis: The phase transition of random graphs.
• BSc in Mathematical Statistics and Data Management, University of Genova, Italy. Thesis: Rough paths integration of standard and fractional Brownian motion.

Recent News

[18/07/25] The article "Will AI Take My Job? Evolving Perceptions of Automation and Labor Risk in Latin America" has been accepted at the 8th AAAI/ACM Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Ethics, and Society!
[03/07/25] New preprint "Understanding support for AI regulation: A Bayesian network perspective" now available!
[01/06/25] New preprint "Disentangling Spatial and Structural Drivers of Housing Prices through Bayesian Networks: A Case Study of Madrid, Barcelona, and Valencias" now available!
[15/05/25] New preprint "Uncovering Drivers of EU Carbon Futures with Bayesian Networks" now available!
[15/05/25] New preprint "Will AI Take My Job? Evolving Perceptions of Automation and Labor Risk in Latin America" now available!
[05/04/25] The article "Predicting and understanding shooting performance in professional biathlon: a Bayesian approach" has now been published in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport.
[01/02/25] The article "Global sensitivity analysis of uncertain parameters in Bayesian networks" has now been published in the International Journal of Approximate Reasoning.
[25/01/25] The article "Staged trees for longitudinal data" has now been published in Metrika.
[10/01/25] The article "bnRep: A repository of Bayesian networks from the academic literature" has now been published in Neurocomputing.
[01/01/25] The article "Evaluation of factors associated with fear and anxiety in the orthodontic treatment of adult patients" has now been published in the Journal of Clinical and Experimental Dentistry.

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Manuele Leonelli