I am a tenure-track Assistant Professor of Statistics in the School of Science and Technology at IE University. My research focuses on the development of machine learning algorithms and the mathematical understanding of their properties. My main areas of research are:

• Probabilistic graphical models
• Sensitivity analysis
• Applications

In particular, I have been focusing on a class of models called staged trees. Together with Gherardo Varando we have developed the stagedtrees R package, available on CRAN. A book titled "Staged Trees: With Examples in R" will be published towards the end of 2024 by CRC Press!!

Relevant Info

• I am a member of the ELLIS Society
• I am a member of the IE Research DATALAB
• I was Editor of Bernoulli News in 2019-2023
• In 2019 I was a visiting professor in the Faculty of Medicine at McGill University
• In 2019 I organized the 1st UK Workshop on Probabilistic Modelling using Chain Event Graphs at the University of Glasgow

Education

• PostGraduate Certificate in Academic Practice, University of Glasgow, UK.
• PhD in Statistics, University of Warwick, UK. Thesis: Bayesian decision support in complex modular systems: An algebraic and graphical approach.
• MSc in Statistics, University of Warwick, UK. Thesis: The phase transition of random graphs.
• BSc in Mathematical Statistics and Data Management, University of Genova, Italy. Thesis: Rough paths integration of standard and fractional Brownian motion.

Recent News

[01/10/24] New preprint "Predicting and understanding shooting performance in professional biathlon: A Bayesian approach" now available!
[05/10/24] Version 0.0.1 of the extrememix R package is now available on CRAN!
[01/10/24] New preprint "bnRep: A repository of Bayesian networks from the academic literature" now available!
[13/07/24] Version 0.2.1 of the bnmonitor R package is now available on CRAN!
[13/07/24] Version 0.0.1 of the bnRep R package is now available on CRAN!
[12/09/24] The article "Learning staged trees from incomplete data" has now been published in the Proceedings of Machine Learning Research.
[12/09/24] The article "Context-specific refinements of Bayesian network classifiers" has now been published in the Proceedings of Machine Learning Research.
[01/08/24] The article "Robust learning of staged tree models: A case study in evaluating transport services" has now been published in Socio-Economic Planning Sciences.
[13/07/24] Version 0.2.0 of the bnmonitor R package is now available on CRAN!
[08/07/24] New preprint "The diameter of a stochastic matrix: A new measure for sensitivity analysis in Bayesian networks" now available!
[11/06/24] New preprint "Global sensitivity analysis of uncertain parameters in Bayesian networks" now available!
[29/05/24] New preprint "Learning staged trees from incomplete data" now available!
[29/05/24] New preprint "Context-specific refinements of Bayesian network classifiers" now available!
[20/05/24] New preprint "An analysis of factors impacting team strengths in the Australian Football League using time-variant Bradley-Terry models" now available!
[08/03/24] The article "Staged trees and asymmetry-labeled DAGs" has now been published in Metrika.
[15/02/24] The article "Structural learning of simple staged trees" has now been published in Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery.
[17/01/24] The article "Learning and interpreting asymmetry-labeled DAGs: a case study on COVID-19 fear" has now been published in Applied Intelligence.
[09/01/24] New preprint "Staged trees for discrete longitudinal data" jointly with Jack Storror Carter, Eva Riccomagno, and Alessandro Ugolini.
[03/01/24] New preprint "Robust learning of staged tree models: A case study in evaluating transport services" jointly with Gherardo Varando.
[27/10/23] External examiner of the PhD Thesis "Multivariate time-series modelling and forecasting with high-order dynamic Bayesian networks applied in industrial settings" by David Quesada Lopez at the Universidad Politecnica de Madrid.

Manuele Leonelli