I am an Associate Professor of Statistics in the School of Science and Technology at IE University. My research develops interpretable statistical and machine learning models, mostly from a Bayesian perspective, and studies their mathematical properties. My main areas of research are:

• Probabilistic graphical models
• Sensitivity analysis
• Extreme value theory
• Causal inference and causal discovery
• Interpretable AI and its role in society
• Applications in finance, energy markets, the environment, sport and tourism

In particular, I have been focusing on a class of models called staged trees. Together with Gherardo Varando I developed the stagedtrees R package, available on CRAN, and we have written the book Staged Tree Models: With Applications in R, forthcoming with CRC Press.

Relevant Info

• I am Editor-in-Chief of vISIon: The ISI Magazine.
• I was one of the Program Chairs of the 13th International PGM Conference, held in Valencia, Spain.
• I am a member of the ELLIS Society.
• I was Editor of Bernoulli News from 2019 to 2023.
• In 2019 I was a visiting professor in the Faculty of Medicine at McGill University.

Education

• Postgraduate Certificate in Academic Practice, University of Glasgow, UK.
• PhD in Statistics, University of Warwick, UK. Thesis: Bayesian decision support in complex modular systems: An algebraic and graphical approach.
• MSc in Statistics, University of Warwick, UK. Thesis: The phase transition of random graphs.
• BSc in Mathematical Statistics and Data Management, University of Genova, Italy. Thesis: Rough paths integration of standard and fractional Brownian motion.

Recent News

[03/11/26] The article "The real effect of Federer's sneak attack return" has now been published in International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching.
[30/10/26] New preprint "Measuring the inaccesible: Can AI evaluate accessibility in heritage tourism?" now available!
[26/10/26] New preprint "Self-thresholding angular-radial models of extremal dependence" now available!
[03/10/26] The article "Tail Dependence in EU Carbon Markets: Graphical Models of Extremes for EUA Futures" has now been published in Computational Economics.
[29/09/26] I received the Knowledge in the Age of AI Award from IE University.
[22/09/26] New preprint "Relegation, promotion and the components of scoring in water polo" now available!
[09/09/26] I attended and organized "The International Conference on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM)"

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Manuele Leonelli